What to expect from this Super El Niño

According to the National Center for Environmental Information, California this year experienced its warmest August on record. But California residents are not alone. August was unusually warm for communities globally.

The culprit? A climate phenomenon known as El Niño. These events occur every two to seven years and modify or reverse typical wind patterns in the Pacific. Oftentimes, El Niño leads to extreme or unusual weather events worldwide. Impacts include droughts, wildfires, hurricanes in typically dry locations and more.

During a neutral non-El Niño year, winds push warm water away from the South American coast toward Asia and Australia. As these winds push warm water away from the coast, cold ocean water replaces it in a process known as upwelling. This effectively cools the coast and tempers climate, preventing the extreme or atypical weather described above.   

During an El Niño year, winds weaken or temporarily reverse, causing warm water to slosh back toward South America, triggering underwater waves called Kelvin waves. These waves trap warm water near the coast and prevent upwelling, resulting in a warmer South American coast. This shifts the atmospheric jet stream responsible for steering storms south and away from its neutral position, meaning storms that typically hit Washington and Oregon also hit California.     

California residents can feel these shifting oceanic and atmospheric patterns during uncharacteristically long, hot and humid summers. Residents may also notice strain on power grids, stress on agriculture and wildlife and an increase in heat-related illnesses. The ensuing winter brings its own set of challenges, especially in California, where infrastructure is often unprepared for excessive precipitation and flooding.

Here in Isla Vista, as the fall quarter comes to an end, students and community members are bracing for just that. This year’s event is set to rival the 1997-98 El Niño, which flooded several buildings, including Campbell Hall, Biological Sciences II and multiple I.V. housing units. The historical El Niño brought storm surges and powerful waves that accelerated bluff erosion on the edge of I.V., causing beachfront backyards and decks to collapse. To manage potential emergencies, UC Santa Barbara has long-established resources and guidelines.

To stay ahead of the weather, the UCSB Emergency Operations Center (EOC) encourages students to sign up for CalAlerts and ReadySBC. These systems send real-time text messages regarding extreme weather in your area.

Beyond CalAlerts and ReadySBC, students and community members can prepare by stocking food, water and medicine, establishing evacuation routes and planning for power outages. During heavy rain and storms, the EOC advises against driving and biking. Students should avoid flooded areas and downed powerlines, and stay away from beaches and other bodies of water.

For long-term readiness, students can also visit the Federal Emergency Management Agency website for help building a disaster supply checklist, and sign up for free on-campus emergency response training.

A version of this article appeared on p.11 of the Nov. 12, 2026 edition of the Daily Nexus.