Fantasy football Web sites like www.espn.go.com like to make a big deal out of their player rankings. They hold them up as gospel and would like you, the humble fantasy owner, to unquestioningly follow their advice.
To actually do so would be a mistake.
Often their rankings do reflect reality. Peyton Manning is always going to be a top five quarterback. Yet in the end, the analysts are only making educated guesses. It is not possible, therefore, for them to always be right, and it is the owners who do follow their advice without doing any research of their own who end up missing out on the gems that free agency has to offer.
Each week, ESPN puts out its updated player rankings, listing its top 60 players at each position. To view them just on a basis of names, it would seem as though player value begins to drop off around the 10th spot on each list. But if you look carefully, you will find low-ranked players who still produce solid numbers and may even still be available in your league.
Let’s take a look at ESPN’s rankings. On its list of the top quarterbacks, ESPN has Matt Schaub of the Houston Texans ranked 6th, while Chad Henne of the Miami Dolphins is ranked 14 spots lower at #20. Schaub has almost 200 more yards passing than Henne, has a higher QB rating, and has thrown for two more touchdowns, making it seem as though Schaub is the obvious choice over Henne. But to be a successful fantasy owner, you are going to need to look a bit deeper. Take Henne and Schaub. Despite his numbers, Schaub has only scored nine more fantasy points than Henne. Why? Interceptions. Schaub has thrown four interceptions to Henne’s one.
So while Schaub has had the more explosive season, he is also more likely to hurt you fantasy-wise. And while Schaub is owned in 100 percent of ESPN leagues, Henne is still available in almost 33 percent of leagues. The contrast is even more striking when you compare Henne to ESPN’s #11 quarterback, Eli Manning, who, despite also being owned in 100 percent of ESPN leagues, has actually put up fewer fantasy points than Henne. It is because of players like Henne that free agency can be an owner’s best friend. Every now and then there will be a player who is flying under the radar but is still producing at the level of a highly ranked player. If you pay attention, you might find one.
Here are a few more numbers. Maurice Jones-Drew, running back for the Jacksonville Jaguars, is ESPN’s fourth-ranked running back. He has scored a grand total of 20 fantasy points and is owned in 100 percent of leagues. The 40th and 41st ranked running backs, Jason Snelling and Mike Tolbert, have put up 41 and 29 fantasy points respectively, and are both still available in almost 40 percent of leagues. St. Louis Rams wide receiver Mark Clayton, who can still be picked up in 23 percent of leagues, is ranked 30th by ESPN despite scoring nine more fantasy points than sixth-ranked receiver Greg Jennings.
My point is this: Just because you missed out on the top ten players does not mean you can’t put together a strong team. Instead of memorizing all the bullshit the analysts at ESPN or any other fantasy football site come up with, do some actual research. Track performances each week and keep a close eye on the free agents in your league, because more likely than not, you will find something that somebody else missed.
Daily Nexus staff writer Josh Greenberg spends his days trolling free angency lists, and absolutely nothing else.
Nice article. And I’m not saying that bc I just picked up Henne. I have noticed recently I’ve succumb to the ESPN worship. I do think they offer a nice range of perspectives (karabell is good), but far too often their egos get in the way of honest analysis. Their hubris laced predictions (mostly TMR) go south and they backpedal, explaining they aren’t psychic. The next thing you know, they are overreacting to their initial mistake. Ex, it’s safe to drop Gaffney now that Thomas is in the mix, even though he contends they’ll pass a ton in Denver. What… Read more »
Thanks for the feedback.
I completely agree. Fuck ESPN projections. Not sure about Snelling though. He only had one monster week didn’t he? Picked him up whenreggie bush got injured but he only got me six points last week I keep him on my bench lol
Thanks for the feedback. And as for Snelling, I am aware that I could be entirely wrong about him. But in essence that’s my point. You, or any fantasy owner, need to do the research.
Your point is sound, their ratings tend to be littered with incredibly over/under valued players, but some of the examples you use are a bit misleading. 37 of Snelling’s 42 points came against Arizona where Turner got hurt early on. Turner was doing a fine job ripping up Arizona’s terrible defense on his own with 75 yards on 9 carries before his injury and Snelling just continued on that path. With Turner back in week 3, Snelling reverted back to his normal position giving Turner a breather between his 30 carries. Maybe Snelling is worth a stash but the only… Read more »
And you also have to keep in mind that the rankings you mention are meant to be the value of the player from this point until the end of the season (they have weekly rankings, but those aren’t the ones that list the top 60 in each position). If Turner or Mathews stay healthy, Snelling and Tolbert are pretty much useless going forward.
I know that the rankings are weekly. I actually wrote that in my article. And everything you just said builds upon my point, which is that the only way you can really know who is going to perform is by watching and keeping track of those people who do perform each week. I am well aware that every player I mentioned could end up doing nothing for the rest of the year. All I’m really saying is don’t set to much store by the rankings.
And those top 60 list actually are weekly. Theyre meant to project a players value for the rest of the season, but espn revises the lists each week.
I realize I’m like 3 or 4 days late to this response but hopefully you’ll see it anyways. I realize they come out weekly but what I meant by that was that they are supposed to show the value they have through the remaining season, as you said – they aren’t the rankings where they rank everybody week to week based on recent play/matchup/injury circumstances/etc. My bad if the way I originally phrased it was misleading. Like I said, your point is sound and I’m by no means trying to argue with it; I was just pointing out that your… Read more »
In other words, the value you talk about is really only there if an injury occurs which isn’t something you can count on. In my league right now we currently have a guy sitting on 4 or 5 RB’s on his bench set to inherit the feature back role should the starter go down. His current standing in the league? Dead last. You certainly aren’t going to start those players and frankly, using bench spots to store “value” picks in handcuffs like Snelling, Toby Gerhart, Javon Ringer, etc, is a home run move that rarely pays off.
Its true that the rankings aren’t necessarily based on injuries or matchups, but they most certainly are based on recent play. If they were not, then the rankings at the end of the season would be exactly the same as they were in week one, since no increase or decrease in level play would ever be taken into account. Also, I say necessarily for injuries because if a player ranked number 1 at his position suffers a season ending injury, it would be absurd to even leave him on the list, let alone in his original position, for the remainder… Read more »
like the article josh, always good to see a fellow espn non-believer. my sleeper pick: darren mcfadden. I wonder what percent owned he is?
I don’t know, but my guess would be 100%. Thanks for the comment.